EL NIÑO

"THE MASTER OF DISASTER"

SCENARIO:

A major international insurance company (RamInsure) and the World Bank have asked the ACES (Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Specialists) to predict the effects of the developing El Niño on global weather and the economies of certain counties. They would like to know how this El Niño event compares with the 1982-83 event. The predictions will assist the insurance company and the World Bank in reallocating funds to cover expected costs due to the effects of the El Niño. The sites of interest to these companies are Australia, South America, and the west and east coasts of the United States.

Internet Resources:

• http://www.stormfax.com/ninoyear.htm (El Niño data)
• http://www.ncdc.noaa. gov/ghcn/ghcnV1.CLIMVIS.html (archived data source)

Procedure:

1. Students download the information on the El Niño of 1982-83, the strongest and most devastating of the 20th Century. (http://www.stormfax.com/ninoyear.htm)
2. Students locate the following cities on a world map, Sydney Australia, San Diego California, New York City and Chiclayo Peru.
3. Students locate and graph the mean temperatures and precipitation of each of the cities for the months of December, January, and February for the year 1982-83.( http://www.ncdc.noaa. gov/ghcn/ghcnV1.CLIMVIS.html)
4. Students collect and graph the mean temperatures and precipitation of the same cities during the current year, same months.
5. Students draw conclusions as to whether or not the current El Niño has had an affect on the cities and or surrounding area. Students should report on weather related affects such as drought, flood, snow, etc.
6. Students write a report to the Raminsure Insurance Company outlining the possible consequences of the El Niño's effects. For example, if the students predict major flooding they should alert the company as to possible claims against their flood insurance policies. Students will report to the World Bank on such things as lost revenue from Australia and South American countries adversely affected by the El Niño. Their reports should include reasons for the expected losses.

Students may continue the El Niño study, however when data is collected it should be for a minimum of 3 months at a time. Local conditions and averages should be graphed for visual comparisons. Other cities around the world may be studied as well. Different months may also be studied.

Related Sites:

• http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/971006/6elni.htm
• http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/ninohigh.htm
• http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/el-nino/1997.html
• http://www.dir.ucar.edu/esig/enso/
• http://www.fema.gov/nwz97/elnino.htm
• http://nimbo.wrh.noaa.gov/Sandiego/elnino.html
• http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/elninolinks/
• http://www.usatoday.com/weather/nino/wnino0.htm
• How El Niño Begins:http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wetnino/wetnino.htm
• How El Niño Effects the Weather:http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wninogrf/wninogrf.htm
• Ask Jack Page:http://www.usatoday.com/weather/tg/wetnino/wetnino.htm

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Last Updated: 10/21/97